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Coming next…

May 15, 2020

We’re not going to continue current restrictions much longer, because we simply cannot. Neither are we going to return to the status quo ante. The consumer economy is not a car or boat that can be put up for a month, and then returned to service with just some minor maintenance. Even if it were, many who fall into a higher risk category will forestall their turn at Russian roulette as long as possible. The world has changed. And as we relax mitigation measures, the disease will make some resurgence. All of which will have an economic impact and add fuel to the political debates.

That will make a messy few months coming. The ones who lose family or friends or lovers will blame our political and medical institutions. As will the ones hurt by a falling economy. The resentful will blame those who ask them to practice still some mitigation measures. The religious will blame secular-minded sinners. The populists will blame scientists and liberals. Conspiracy theories will multiply.

There is no optimal route through this. I agree with Kaplan that we are lagging at testing and that boosting that would make a good difference. (Ob disclaimer: I was long ABT before Covid-19 appeared. But am not yet jumping into the market.)

2 Comments leave one →
  1. Laura permalink
    May 15, 2020 11:01 am

    This sounds way too reasonable for this day and age. In spite of assurances to the contrary, it is possible for societies to figure this out: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/08/larry-hogan-recovery-doesnt-mean-going-back-normal/?fbclid=IwAR2k0DvnZx7rdYZo9CPPPF6L291QI13Vri_ivwb4Yk1YI5lMw42WvTsi3hc

    But in America, we already choose not to figure other solvable problems: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/opinion/coronavirus-deaths.html

    I am not optimistic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/what-freedom-means-trump/611083/

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