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August 27, 2012

A professor of medicine at Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice argues that we should devote 1% of research funding to testing things we think we know, but have only fuzzy data to confirm. Perhaps we’ll learn whether sunscreen lotions have any impact on skin cancer.

Noah Smith notes that “inflation hawks have predicted 10 out of the last zero inflations.” Despite that, he bet Brad DeLong that inflation would hit 5% in the next three years. Why? He got good odds. He didn’t bet much. And maybe the horse will sing.

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